GERD, Aswan High Dam and Politics

Despite having a massive water source, Ethiopia suffered from underdevelopment and lack of electricity. Due to urbanisation and expansion of urban areas, the demand for clean water has significantly increased and therefore, countries like Ethiopia, explore different options for developing new water infrastructures to utilise the water available to them at the Nile basin. Therefore, the construction plans for Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) were proposed back in the 1960s, however, due to economic and political reasons the build was postponed. However, in 2020 the dam has been completed and started generating 375 megawatts, delivering it to the grid. Thus, the country relies heavily on GERD to provide energy and enhance its economy. 

Egypt, as a downstream country, considers itself vulnerable and fears disruptions to its access to the Nile’s water resource, as they believe GERD would have a profound negative impact on the country. Egypt has used its colonial era agreements to prevent construction of any major infrastructure projects and GERD could mean a shift in the power dynamic, as Egypt lost its dominance over the Nile. While Ethiopia argues that there would be no major impact on the river flow of the Nile, climate change, which could cause unparalleled shortages of water, exploitation, and pollution of the waters, put existential crisis on the river and thus would increase Egypt’s fear of longer periods of drought and scarcity of water. Both countries are taking priority over itself rather than creating an all benefiting system. 

The Nile now has two of the greatest dams in the world, the High Aswan Dam (HAD) and the GERD, with two different countries managing them (Egypt and Ethiopia). Their coexistence puts strain on the water resources as there is no agreement, as of yet, on management of water on reservoir operations. However, Egypt shifted its political position on the GERD, instead trying to secure a political agreement over the timetable for filling the GERD’s reservoir.Potentially increasing Egypt’s supply of water if managed properly and provide the country with a more sustainable source of energy. 

                                             Fig 1. showing major infrastructures on the Nile Basin

A parallel can be drawn between the Aswan High Dam and GERD. Building of Aswan High Dam was influenced by the conflict between Arab Nationalism and British Imperialism. Revolutionary Egypt used this dam as a symbol of power. While originally the dam was to be funded by the United Kingdom, United States, and the World bank, they withdrew their support and the USSR ended up providing funding for the dam. These was viewed as a ‘side taking’ act in the Cold War, leading to nationalisation of the Suez Canal and military conflict, where Britain, France and Israel attacked Egypt. Similarly, GERD is built out of the conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt and can be viewed a political statement to show power over the Nile water. And while, it is unlikely that Egypt would take military action against Ethiopia, there is still no legal agreement between the two countries that would prevent further tensions. 

Successful cooperation is needed to develop a water management system that would provide a better water storages. Water availability for Egypt could be increased by the Ethiopian storage facilities as there would less water loss due to evaporation. Despite these benefits the reluctancy of Egypt to entrust the water management to another country is understandable, however, the shift in Egypt's political opinion can open a door to new negotiations and potentially bring an end to the transboundary conflict.